Champions League Semi-Finals: Arsenal-Atlético and PSG-Bayern Set for Decisive Second Legs

The road to Budapest narrows this week. Both Champions League semi-final second legs land in the next four days, with two ties that could not be more different in shape.

Arsenal travel to face Atlético Madrid first, with the Emirates leg on Tuesday 5 May. Mikel Arteta's side held Diego Simeone's team to a 1-1 draw at the Wanda Metropolitano in the first leg, and a clean sheet at home would be enough to send them into the final. Atlético arrive in London having already eliminated Tottenham and Barcelona in the knockout rounds, scoring 14 goals across those four legs — a strikingly different version of Atlético than the one neutrals remember from the Diego Costa era.

Then on Wednesday 6 May, Bayern Munich host PSG at the Allianz Arena, trailing 5-4 from a chaotic first leg in Paris. Ousmane Dembélé scored twice in that match, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia adding a brace of his own — but Bayern came back from 5-2 down to give themselves a fighting chance. Harry Kane, suspended for the first leg's opening exchanges, will start at home with everything to play for.

Both ties offer opportunities for tipsters who understand knockout-round psychology. Two-legged ties, especially when the away side leads narrowly, distort first-half goal markets. Cards markets typically inflate. And substitution patterns are not the same as a regular fixture. If you want a structured way to think about second-leg analysis — when to back the trailing side, when to fade the lead and how aggregate scorelines shape in-play prices — our guide to cup match winner predictions is a useful starting point.

The final is on 30 May at the Puskás Aréna. Whoever wins these two ties will be a first-time finalist alongside one of the four — none of these clubs have all reached this stage in the same season before.